#BJP #Congress #election 2014 exit polls #Exit polls 2014 #India #Lok Sabha elections 2014 #Modi wave #Narendra Modi #NDA #Politics #Uttar Pradesh
Regrettably, I am not a number-cruncher and have no clue how you convert a party’s vote share into seats, but I can count. All the way up to 272, if you like, and tell whether it adds up. And looking at the much-anticipated exit poll results it is obvious (never mind, the BJP spin) that the numbers don’t add up either to a BJP or a Modi “wave’’,
let alone a 'tsunami'. I looked at three exit polls, and all show the BJP struggling to reach the magic half-way mark of 272 that would allow it to form a government on its own. Even the most generous and comprehensive of them the CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey –gives the BJP on its own between 230 and 242 seats only, leaving it short by 30. The numbers do not really confirm a 'wave' for the BJP: Naresh Sharma/Firstpost Statistically, the claim that it is a better result than what the party achieved even under Atal Behari Vajpayee may be correct, but a 'wave'?.
Nowhere is this more evident than in UP where only 13 per cent Muslims voted for it. The party’s UPA allies also seem to be struggling in large parts of the country with CNN-IBN giving it 92-102 seats and ABP-Nielsen 97. Times Now has it at a seemingly unlikely148. Ultimately, however, this election was always about the BJP, especially Modi, and I’m afraid the exit poll results don’t live up to the hype. 'Wave'? What wave?
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/sorry-bjp-the-exit-polls-reveal-there-is-no-modi-wave-1521057.html?utm_source=ref_article
Regrettably, I am not a number-cruncher and have no clue how you convert a party’s vote share into seats, but I can count. All the way up to 272, if you like, and tell whether it adds up. And looking at the much-anticipated exit poll results it is obvious (never mind, the BJP spin) that the numbers don’t add up either to a BJP or a Modi “wave’’,
let alone a 'tsunami'. I looked at three exit polls, and all show the BJP struggling to reach the magic half-way mark of 272 that would allow it to form a government on its own. Even the most generous and comprehensive of them the CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey –gives the BJP on its own between 230 and 242 seats only, leaving it short by 30. The numbers do not really confirm a 'wave' for the BJP: Naresh Sharma/Firstpost Statistically, the claim that it is a better result than what the party achieved even under Atal Behari Vajpayee may be correct, but a 'wave'?.
Nowhere is this more evident than in UP where only 13 per cent Muslims voted for it. The party’s UPA allies also seem to be struggling in large parts of the country with CNN-IBN giving it 92-102 seats and ABP-Nielsen 97. Times Now has it at a seemingly unlikely148. Ultimately, however, this election was always about the BJP, especially Modi, and I’m afraid the exit poll results don’t live up to the hype. 'Wave'? What wave?
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/sorry-bjp-the-exit-polls-reveal-there-is-no-modi-wave-1521057.html?utm_source=ref_article
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